significant shift<\/strong> for the oil-producer group.<\/p>\nAlongside Saudi Arabia<\/strong>, it is one of the few members with meaningful spare capacity<\/strong>, the mechanism through which the group exerts market influence<\/strong> and responds to supply shocks.<\/p>\nIts departure<\/strong> therefore removes one of the core pillars underpinning OPEC’s ability<\/strong> to manage the market.<\/p>\nWhile near-term effects<\/strong> may be muted given ongoing disruption in the Strait of Hormuz<\/strong> and broader geopolitical uncertainty<\/strong>, the longer-term implications are more consequential.<\/p>\nA structurally weaker OPEC<\/strong>, with less spare capacity concentrated within the group, will find it increasingly difficult<\/strong> to calibrate supply<\/strong> and stabilize prices.<\/p>\nThe broader lesson from recent years<\/strong> is that OPEC+ has shown<\/strong> itself both able and willing to intervene decisively<\/strong>, but its effectiveness depends on the nature of the shock<\/strong>.<\/p>\nThe group is best equipped to manage temporary disruptions<\/strong>, where supply can be shifted across time to smooth the market<\/strong>.<\/p>\nIt is far less clear that this model holds<\/strong> in a world of structurally weakening demand<\/strong>.<\/p>\nAs oil demand approaches a peak<\/strong> and begins to decline, incentives shift<\/strong>.<\/p>\nProducers with spare capacity<\/strong> may prioritize monetizing reserves<\/strong> and protecting market share<\/strong> over collective restraint.<\/p>\nIn that context, the logic for early movers<\/strong> becomes more compelling.<\/p>\nThe UAE<\/strong>, with capacity of around 4.8 million barrels per day<\/strong> and significant room<\/strong> to increase output, is particularly well positioned to pursue such a strategy outside the group<\/strong>.<\/p>\nThat, in turn, raises broader questions<\/strong> about the sustainability of Saudi Arabia’s role<\/strong> as the market’s central stabilizer, especially if it is left carrying a disproportionate share<\/strong> of the adjustment burden.<\/p>\nThe net effect points to a more fragmented supply landscape<\/strong> and a potentially more volatile oil market<\/strong> over time, as OPEC’s capacity<\/strong> to smooth imbalances diminishes.<\/p>\nRystad Energy\u2019s breaking news<\/u><\/strong> market update from the Head of Geopolitical Analysis, Jorge Leon<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n Rephrase in a different way as if you were a native American speaker as a content creation expert and do not talk about yourself or your experience in the text and do not show yourself as an artificial intelligence who wrote and fill the bullet point in the topic and speak the heart of the topic itself and dont take date of blog in ther first and dont take text like box of newsliter subscribe on post from contentand romove all linke insert in content and and remove all affiliate disclosure phrases on content like this “This post may contain Amazon or other affiliate links that allow us to earn a small commission at no extra cost to you. Please see our Disclosure Policy for more info” and “#” put in its place bullet point, and romove name of the web site or his links we are take a content from our new creation, and don’t publish clone new content more than just one time<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Losing a member with 4.8 million barrels per day of capacity, and the ambition to produce more, takes a real tool out of the group’s hands. The timing tells you something about where the oil market is going. With demand nearing a peak, the calculation for producers with low-cost barrels is changing fast, and waiting […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":14342,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"rank_math_lock_modified_date":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[11],"tags":[940,12160,823,3092,3096,3097,1182,822,234,3095,3712,827,12161,3093,100,4407,12162,6952,5045,4236,202,3088,249,3094,3098,826],"class_list":["post-14341","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-business","tag-american","tag-arabia-saoudite","tag-arabia-saudi","tag-characters","tag-content","tag-creation","tag-dont","tag-emiratos-arabes-unidos","tag-experience","tag-expert","tag-game","tag-les-emirats-arabes-unis","tag-mover","tag-native","tag-oil","tag-opec","tag-opecs","tag-opep","tag-petrole","tag-petroleo","tag-portada","tag-rephrase","tag-saudi-arabia","tag-speaker","tag-talk","tag-united-arab-emirates"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/alfanouscar.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/14341","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/alfanouscar.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/alfanouscar.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/alfanouscar.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/3"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/alfanouscar.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=14341"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/alfanouscar.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/14341\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":14343,"href":"https:\/\/alfanouscar.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/14341\/revisions\/14343"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/alfanouscar.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/14342"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/alfanouscar.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=14341"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/alfanouscar.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=14341"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/alfanouscar.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=14341"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}