Morocco’s cereal harvest is expected to hit just 4 million tonnes this year, 27% below average, because of prolonged drought, according to the UN’s Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO).
The FAO says that this is the second year in a row of poor cereal production in Morocco, and in order to meet demand, the country is projected to import around 11 million tonnes of grain during the 2025/2026 marketing year, more than 20% above average.
The government has already extended wheat import subsidies to the end of the year to keep prices stable and ensure enough flour for bread production.
According to the FAO report, the grain harvest started in May, with wheat wrapping up by June and barley expected to be harvested through the end of July.
Rainfall during the critical winter period (December 2024 to February 2025) was more than 60% below the long-term average in key farming areas like Fès, Boulmane, Casablanca, Gharb, and the Tangier-Tetouan region.
Although heavy rains in March and April helped slightly by restoring some soil moisture, they weren’t enough to reverse the damage.
The report says that the ongoing dry conditions are also raising concerns about stock levels in the coming months.
In recent years, Morocco’s cereal production has been on a downward trend due to repeated droughts. After a relatively good harvest in 2022–2023, production fell sharply again in 2023–2024.
The government reported a significant drop in both output and the area planted with cereals.
Wheat remains the dominant crop, but shrinking rainfall and dry soil have made harvests increasingly unpredictable.
On a more positive note, food inflation has stayed low in 2025. In May, annual food prices rose just 0.4%, down from 0.7% in April, the lowest rate since October 2024. The drop is mostly due to falling prices for vegetables, fish, meat, bread, and cereals.
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