Rabat faces renewed scrutiny over its strategic fuel reserves as escalating military tensions in the Middle East raise concerns about the stability of global energy supply routes, with Moroccan experts warning that prolonged conflict could push oil prices sharply higher and expose the country’s heavy dependence on imported energy.
Morocco imports roughly 90 percent of its energy needs, leaving the economy sensitive to disruptions in global supply chains and maritime routes such as the Strait of Hormuz and Bab el Mandeb, according to analysts and energy specialists who spoke to Moroccan media.
“If international tensions continue for more than a month, oil prices could exceed $100 to $120 per barrel at a minimum,” said energy expert and university professor Abdessamad Mellouki, who specializes in renewable energy technologies. Higher prices would place “strong pressure on the state budget and citizens’ purchasing power,” he said, noting that transport, industry and electricity generation remain closely tied to imported petroleum products.
The debate has revived concerns about Morocco’s strategic fuel reserves. Data cited by energy sector officials indicate that current petroleum stocks cover about 18 to 22 days of national consumption, a level experts say could expose the country to supply disruptions if major shipping corridors were blocked.
Energy analyst Hussein El Yamani, secretary general of Morocco’s national petroleum and gas union, said the country consumes roughly 1 million tonnes of petroleum products each month, while strategic reserves in some periods have fallen to about 167,000 tonnes.
“This means the current stock only covers between 18 and 22 days of consumption,” El Yamani said, citing recent figures from Morocco’s Ministry of Energy Transition. The estimate includes gasoline, diesel, aviation fuel and industrial fuel.
Any disruption in maritime chokepoints could have global repercussions, he said. “The Strait of Hormuz and Bab el Mandeb are critical routes for global energy trade. Escalation in those areas threatens supply chains between the Middle East and markets in Europe and the United States.”
Morocco has previously felt the impact of energy market volatility, particularly after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022, when uncertainty around global supply chains pushed prices higher in domestic markets.
Analysts say Morocco’s reliance on external energy supplies remains a structural challenge. El Yamani estimated that the country’s energy independence rate stands at about 10 percent, with the remainder dependent on imports of oil, gas and refined products.
The government has sought to strengthen energy infrastructure, including plans to develop liquefied natural gas facilities at the Nador West Med port complex. The project is expected to include a major LNG storage and regasification terminal designed to supply industrial zones and electricity generation.]
Experts say such infrastructure could reduce Morocco’s exposure to external supply shocks by improving storage capacity and diversifying energy supply routes as global energy markets remain volatile.
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