A recent study by researchers at Mohammed V University in Rabat finds that Morocco’s economic growth depends more on the quality of public-private partnership (PPP) investments than on the sheer number of projects launched.
Based on three decades of data from 1993 to 2023, the study uses an autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) econometric model to measure the short- and long-term impact of PPPs on GDP growth.
The results point to a clear conclusion: well-governed, high-value PPP projects contribute positively to long-term growth, while the multiplication of projects without sufficient oversight can have the opposite effect.
In the long run, PPP investment volume shows a statistically significant positive impact on economic growth.
By contrast, an increase in the number of PPP contracts tends to weaken growth outcomes, suggesting that project accumulation does not guarantee economic performance.
According to the authors, value creation depends on execution quality, risk allocation, and measurable socioeconomic returns.
In the short term, however, an increase in PPP projects does provide a temporary boost to economic activity, particularly during construction and early implementation phases.
This reflects the dual nature of PPPs as short-term stimulus tools and long-term competitiveness drivers, provided governance standards are upheld.
The study also highlights structural constraints. Inflation continues to weigh on growth, while unemployment maintains a negative and significant impact, underscoring the limits of infrastructure-led growth without parallel labor market reforms.
Morocco has long been a regional pioneer in PPPs, with flagship projects such as Tanger Med port, Noor Ouarzazate solar complex, and the Tangier–Casablanca high-speed rail line.
According to UNCTAD, the country ranks second in Africa in cumulative PPP investment. Yet the concentration of funding in large-scale projects has sometimes limited local spillovers, particularly in less attractive regions.
The researchers recommend strengthening PPP governance through tighter project selection, monitoring, and transparency. While Morocco’s legal framework has been modernized under Law 86-12, implementation gaps remain, especially in fiscal risk assessment and institutional coordination.
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