It’s no secret that the festive season sees a surge in travelers at the airport. This year, however, is set to see a 6.2% increase over last year’s crowds, according to the TSA. The agency expects to screen almost 40 million people between December 19 and January 2.
Higher numbers of travelers year-over-year were forecast at least as far back as October when Expedia’s Holiday Travel Outlook reported that international Christmas travel flight searches were up 20% compared to 2023.
The forthcoming peak surge follows the TSA’s busiest-ever day. December 1 was one for the agency’s history books as it screened more than 3 million people across U.S. airports as travelers wrapped up their Thanksgiving holidays.
The Busiest 2024 Holiday Travel Days
According to the TSA, many of those 40 million travelers will be passing through U.S. terminals on three key dates: December 20, December 27, and December 30.
TSA spokesperson Mark Howell told Skift that the holiday period marks a slight change in pattern from other busy — but far shorter — holiday periods in the U.S., such as Labor Day weekend.
Although the longer December holiday period will be busier year-over-year compared to last year, “the Christmas and New Year’s holidays aren’t as heavy on the daily because the volume is more spread out,” he said.
Because of this, Howell doesn’t expect the TSA to see a single-day record set for passenger volume, but “we’ll probably have a record over the Christmas period.”
Howell noted that 5 a.m. to 9 a.m. typically marks a peak period for TSA checkpoints, with some additional wait times to be expected. However, he said that the goal is 30 minutes or less for standard screenings and 15 minutes or less for TSA PreCheck passengers. To help cope with the additional holiday traffic the TSA has added new security lanes, new screening tech, more K9 units, and additional staffing.
Airlines and Airports Plan for Holiday Peak
American Airlines is expecting almost 12.7 million fliers to fill more than 118,000 flights during the winter holiday period, which it defines as December 18 to January 6. Similar to TSA projections, it expects December 27 to be its busiest travel day, with December 20 to be its second-highest peak over the holiday period.
United is looking at 9.9 million travelers between December 19 and January 6, up 12% from last year. This continues its record-breaking traveler numbers over other typically busy U.S. holiday travel periods, such as Memorial Day and July Fourth. It plans to operate around 4,500 flights per day, having added nearly 500 additional daily flights to accommodate the 540,000-plus people traveling with the airline daily during the period.
Air Canada, meanwhile, is expecting December 19 through December 23 to be its peak over a festive season that runs from mid-December through January 6. According to the carrier, 2.2 million travelers will board one of up to 1,000 daily flights across its three airlines (Air Canada, Air Canada Rouge, and Air Canada Express).
Elsewhere, London’s Heathrow Airport has earmarked Christmas Day itself as a record-setter this year, with the number of people passing through its terminals expected to be 21% higher than 2023’s December 25 traffic. This follows its busiest-ever November last month, with 6.5 million passengers passing through its terminals — around 1.5 million of whom were departing to or arriving from North America.
Travel Volume Continues to Rebound Post-Pandemic
It’s not just holiday travel that’s affected by higher volumes of traveler traffic. At Heathrow, 2024 is set to outpace 2023’s total of 79 million passengers.
According to the TSA, this is part of a pattern of increased travel post-pandemic. “It’s been like that this year as a whole: The volume has been up exceptionally high, especially on holiday weekends,” said Howell.
Although there might be a chance for TSA screeners to catch their breath as we get further into January, its likely that 2025 will continue to see an uptick in air travel.
Delta executives recently said they expect next year to bring in increased revenues for the airline, fueled by a strong economy and increased travel demand, especially for premium and international travel.
“I hate to talk about the pandemic, but there’s just a lot of people traveling right now,” adds Howell. “There’s confidence in people wanting to travel — they’re just getting out and traveling more.”
Although the TSA — and airlines — were planning on seeing a post-pandemic rebound, “we’re seeing that year over year,” Howell said. “It’s good for the industry, and it’s good for everybody when there’s continued growth.”
Airlines Sector Stock Index Performance Year-to-Date
What am I looking at? The performance of airline sector stocks within the ST200. The index includes companies publicly traded across global markets including network carriers, low-cost carriers, and other related companies.
The Skift Travel 200 (ST200) combines the financial performance of nearly 200 travel companies worth more than a trillion dollars into a single number. See more airlines sector financial performance.
Read the full methodology behind the Skift Travel 200.
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