Despite heavy rains in March, Morocco’s wheat production for this agricultural season is expected to remain below the 10-year average. While it’s slightly higher than the drought-affected levels of 2024, the hot, dry start to the season and a reduced planting area will limit overall wheat production.
The USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service forecasts soft wheat production at 1.7 million tonnes, durum wheat at 1.1 million tonnes, and barley at 700,000 tonnes.
Morocco experienced a prolonged drought at the start of the farming season, delaying sowing, especially in the south, where planting wasn’t completed until January 2025. The lack of rainfall led many farmers to delay planting, waiting for the first rains, which arrived later than expected.
The Ministry of Agriculture aimed to plant 5 million hectares, but persistent dry conditions reduced this target to only 40% of the planned area.
This year’s planted area is similar to last year’s but still 30% below the 10-year average. The total harvested area for soft and durum wheat is estimated at 2.2 million hectares, while barley will reach 800,000 hectares, according to a report from the USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service.
In response to these challenges, the Ministry of Agriculture is promoting direct seeding techniques to help farmers better cope with climate uncertainties.
This method will gradually be rolled out in the Rabat-Kénitra, Khémissat, Meknès, and Fès regions, with a goal of covering 200,000 hectares by 2030.
Crops planted early in the season are showing below-average growth due to dry conditions from December to February, the report highlights, but fields sown later have benefited from the heavy rains in March, resulting in better growth conditions.
overall production remains below average, particularly in the Marrakech-Tensift-El Haouz and Souss-Massa regions, where vegetation is sparser than usual.
To make up for the reduced local production and maintain adequate reserves, Morocco’s wheat imports for the current season are expected to reach 7.3 million tonnes, with barley imports hitting 900,000 tonnes.
This marks a 42% increase from the 10-year average, although a slight decrease is expected compared to last year due to moderately improved domestic production, according to the report.
Morocco has diversified its supply sources, shifting from heavy reliance on France to include Germany, Canada, Russia, Romania, and Poland.
Russia, in particular, has become a key player, exporting 960,137 tonnes of wheat to Morocco between June and December 2024, a 278% increase from the same period in 2023.
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