- Stable market
- Meeting on Venezuela
- Gold, a safe haven in times of geopolitical instability
- Silver, skyrocketing thanks to AI
- Platinum and palladium lose momentum
Almost a week after the US operation that culminated in the arrest of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro and his wife, the stability that characterised the oil market in the days immediately following the operation remains.
Initially, there was speculation that the intervention in the early hours of 3 January could cause an earthquake in the international oil market and send crude prices skyrocketing. However, the message of calm issued by OPEC at its meeting in early January and the evolution of the market in the days that followed ruled out that possibility.
Stable market
During last Friday’s session, 9 January, the price of a barrel of Brent crude was trading above $62.7, up 1.15% from the previous session, while a barrel of West Texas Intermediate was trading at $58.41, up 1.13%.
The calm that has characterised the oil market over the last week highlights the limited impact that Venezuelan oil export figures have on the international market.
According to an analysis by Peter Kinsella, global head of currency strategy at Swiss private bank UBP, events in Venezuela will have significant implications for the oil market in the medium term, as US control of Venezuelan exports could force recipient markets such as China and Cuba to seek alternative sources of supply.
In the opinion of the UBP analyst, the impact will not be substantial on the global oil market, as US sanctions reduced Venezuela’s exports to one million barrels per day, in a market that shows a surplus of 1.4 million barrels per day, which could grow to two million by the second quarter of 2026.
Meeting on Venezuela
In any case, it will be necessary to see how oil prices evolve over the next few days, following the meeting held last Friday, 9 January, at the White House between President Trump and the heads of oil companies with interests in Venezuela, including Spain’s Repsol.
The company chaired by Antonio Brufau wants to obtain authorisation from the US government to resume crude oil exports from Venezuela, which were interrupted in March last year when its licence was revoked by the US administration.
As US Energy Secretary Chris Wright pointed out in a recent interview, in the coming months we will see an expansion of the activities of US oil companies such as Chevron, ExxonMobile and others in Venezuela, contributing to the development of the country’s oil industry. Repsol also hopes to play a role in the new Venezuelan oil industry.
Gold, a safe haven in times of geopolitical instability
While the oil market has reacted with indifference to events in Venezuela, the same cannot be said for precious metals, which have highlighted their status as a safe haven asset in times of geopolitical instability.
It is true that precious metals, especially gold and silver, have been successively breaking their historical price records for months, driven by international geopolitical instability that makes them increasingly attractive to investors seeking a safe and reliable asset.
The arrest of Nicolás Maduro has given new impetus to this upward trend, which has been reactivated over the last week.
As Peter Kinsella of UBP points out in his analysis, events in Venezuela sent the price of gold soaring to new highs above $4,430 an ounce: ‘This rally is a clear reminder that gold continues to be favoured by a backdrop of geopolitical tensions and that it can rise at any time, or when least expected.’
According to this analyst, the conflicting interests of powers such as the United States, China and Iran will cause geopolitical tensions that will continue to benefit the precious metal.
At the time of writing, the price of gold was trading at £4,432.10 per ounce on the London Bullion Market Association (LBMA, the London gold market that sets the price of physical gold), close to the highs it reached in the Christmas week of £4,481 per ounce.
The price of gold rose 65% during 2025, from £2,708 per ounce on 1 January to £4,328 on 31 December. Most analysts predict that this rise will continue throughout 2026, driven by investors’ fears of geopolitical events. Even analysts who are most reluctant to bet on gold limit its fall to £3,500 per ounce, well above its price at the beginning of last year.
Silver, skyrocketing thanks to AI
Silver has also seen its price skyrocket. On 9 January, the metal was trading on the LBMA at £75.21 per ounce, after reaching an all-time high of £78.99 per ounce on 7 January.
During 2025, the price of silver rose by around 145%, making it the precious metal with the highest year-on-year appreciation. In the case of this metal, it should be noted that it is not only a safe-haven asset, but also a metal that serves as a raw material for numerous industrial applications. These include some that have grown exponentially in recent years, such as vehicle electrification and artificial intelligence.
It should also be noted that the silver market is very small compared to the gold market, making it more susceptible to price fluctuations.
Platinum and palladium lose momentum
Finally, the other two precious metals used for investment, platinum and palladium, are also performing well, despite the fact that their main industrial use (in the manufacture of catalytic converters for diesel and petrol vehicles, respectively) is set to decline increasingly.
Specifically, on 9 January, platinum was trading at $2,225 per ounce, close to its all-time high of $2,268 per ounce, while palladium was trading at $1,718.5, far from the $3,061.80 it reached in March 2022.
In any case, precious metals have traditionally been considered a store of value in times of economic and geopolitical instability, a condition that has been highlighted throughout 2025 and is expected to continue this year.
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