Eight OPEC+ countries that voluntarily cut oil production earlier this year plan to increase output by 411,000 barrels per day in June, matching May’s pace, as part of a phased plan to unwind previous production cuts totaling 2.2 million bpd.
Russia, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, the United Arab Emirates, Kazakhstan, Algeria, Oman, and Kuwait will collectively raise production for a third consecutive month. The move reflects a coordinated attempt to stabilize global oil supply after months of voluntary cutbacks designed to support prices and manage excess inventory.
The voluntary cuts, initially introduced at the start of 2024, were separate from OPEC+’s official quotas. At the time, the countries agreed to scale back 2.2 million bpd on top of already existing caps, citing concerns over market volatility, inflation, and geopolitical risk.
While April saw a cautious increase of 138,000 bpd, the group moved faster in May and now June, with each of the two months scheduling output increases of 411,000 bpd. These gradual shifts are part of a planned three-month ramp-up intended to ease back into higher supply without triggering a price collapse.
However, not all participating countries are equally positioned. According to TASS estimates, while the production increase nominally stands at 411,000 bpd, actual growth in June is projected to be closer to 359,000 bpd. This is due to obligations by seven out of the eight countries to offset prior overproduction.
Only Algeria has fully met its reduction target, meaning it can restore output without restrictions.
Under the compensation mechanism, an additional 431,000 bpd will be subtracted from the group’s overall June output to account for past oversupply. Balancing increases with offsetting cuts highlights the delicate act OPEC+ members are navigating, boosting production while preventing supply gluts.
Lingering geopolitical tensions, weaker-than-expected global demand recovery from China, and uncertainty surrounding Western monetary policy are all affecting the broader market. Brent crude has fluctuated between USD 75 and USD 85 per barrel since March, under pressure from slowing industrial growth and resilient non-OPEC production, especially from the US.
For OPEC economies, particularly rentier states like Saudi Arabia and Iraq, the ability to manage oil revenue remains critical to budgeting and public services. Increasing production without collapsing prices allows governments to recoup some fiscal space lost during the months of tighter supply.
Russia, under sanctions, continues to rely heavily on energy revenues for budget stabilization. Gradual output recovery will help cushion its economy without breaching OPEC+ commitments that could undermine the group’s unity.
Globally, the measured increase in oil supply may help limit inflation in import-reliant economies but is unlikely to trigger dramatic price drops unless paired with a sharp decline in demand or a surge in non-OPEC output. OPEC+ appears focused on walking a fine line, keeping prices high enough for producers but low enough to avoid harming the fragile global recovery.
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