Despite official data showing a slowdown in inflation, many Moroccan households are entering the holy month of Ramadan under mounting financial strain, as rising food costs and seasonal spending test their purchasing power.
Economists say the apparent contradiction between easing macroeconomic indicators and the daily reality in markets reflects the cumulative impact of high inflation in recent years combined with a seasonal surge in demand. The result, they argue, is a complex economic landscape in which families continue to feel squeezed.
Abdelrazak El Hiri, a professor of economics at Sidi Mohamed Ben Abdellah University in Fez, said low- and middle-income households in particular face “a real financial challenge” in covering Ramadan-related expenses.
He attributed higher prices for vegetables, fruit, red meat, poultry, fish and eggs to a mix of structural and seasonal factors. Increased consumption during Ramadan, along with panic buying and stockpiling by some consumers, has driven up demand, he said. Weather disruptions, including irregular rainfall and flooding, have also affected supply in some sectors, compounding weaknesses in distribution chains and the role of intermediaries.
El Hiri urged families to adopt more rational consumption habits, suggesting they opt for affordable local alternatives and avoid luxury goods. He noted that prices often stabilize after the first week of Ramadan, when buying frenzies ease, and encouraged “smart shopping” strategies such as bulk purchases and avoiding peak hours.
The rising cost of living has also weighed on household confidence, he said, creating financial and psychological stress that detracts from the spiritual focus of the month.
“Ramadan price hikes have become a recurring seasonal phenomenon,” El Hiri said, calling for stricter oversight of intermediaries and speculators, stronger support for domestic production and greater consumer awareness to reduce food waste.
Mohamed Adel Ichou, a financial analyst and professor of economics and management at Sultan Moulay Slimane University in Beni Mellal, said the slowdown in overall inflation is not enough to reassure households unless it translates into tangible declines in essential goods.
According to Morocco’s High Commission for Planning, inflation peaked at around 6.6% in 2022 before slowing in 2024 and 2025. But Ichou said that a lower inflation rate does not mean prices are falling, only that they are rising more slowly.
Food prices, which account for about 38% of Moroccan household spending, have seen significant cumulative increases over the past two years, particularly for meat, vegetables, oils and grains. During Ramadan, when food consumption typically rises by 20% to 30% compared with other months, the sense of higher living costs becomes more acute.
Although the government approved wage increases in both the public and private sectors as part of social dialogue agreements, Ichou said their impact has been limited in the face of accumulated price increases.
“When wages rise after a period of high inflation, much of that increase goes toward restoring lost purchasing power rather than improving it,” he said. Surveys show that more than 70% of households believe their income is insufficient to cover current expenses, while only 10% to 15% report being able to save, he added.
Ichou also pointed to global factors fueling what he described as “imported inflation.” Disruptions in global supply chains and higher international prices for energy and grains have raised Morocco’s import costs, directly affecting domestic prices. The country remains sensitive to international market fluctuations and exchange rate movements due to its reliance on imported energy and food products, he said.
At the same time, market oversight mechanisms remain insufficient to address structural imbalances, Ichou said, citing a large informal sector, multiple intermediaries in distribution chains and instances of speculation and stockpiling.
“Even with intensified inspections, the overlap between formal and informal markets makes full price control difficult,” he said, leaving room for noncompetitive practices during sensitive periods such as Ramadan.
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