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Morocco’s trade deficit climbed sharply in the first quarter of 2026, reaching about 88 billion dirhams ($9.3 billion), nearly 24% higher than in the same period last year.

The increase reflects two pressures hitting the economy at the same time. Morocco imports significantly more than it exports, and that gap has been widening. A second shock emerged with the conflict involving Iran and the resulting disruption in the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most critical oil shipping routes.

Morocco has long depended heavily on imports, particularly energy, industrial equipment, raw materials and consumer goods. Even before the latest geopolitical tensions, forecasts from Morocco’s High Commission for Planning showed the country’s trade deficit continuing to widen through 2025 and 2026.

Imports have been growing faster than exports, while several of Morocco’s key export sectors have come under pressure. The automotive industry, one of the country’s main export engines, began slowing in 2025. Auto exports fell by 3.6% in the first half of that year to about 77.6 billion dirhams.

Phosphates helped cushion the impact. Exports of phosphates and related products rose nearly 19% to 46.6 billion dirhams, supported by strong global demand for fertilizers. However, the increase was not sufficient to offset the broader surge in imports.

By mid-2025, Morocco’s imports had already climbed nearly 9% to about 398 billion dirhams, while exports rose just over 3% to 236 billion dirhams, resulting in the country’s largest trade deficit in five years.

Economists have also pointed to a worsening structural indicator: Morocco’s trade coverage ratio has been declining steadily. This ratio measures the extent to which exports can finance imports.

By early 2025, exports covered only about 61.8% of imports, underscoring the country’s growing dependence on foreign goods and energy.

The conflict escalated in late February 2026 following military operations involving Iran, the United States and Israel. Within days, Iran announced restrictions and incidents affecting traffic through the Strait of Hormuz.

Global energy markets reacted quickly, with oil prices rising amid fears of prolonged supply disruptions.

For Morocco, the timing added further pressure.

The country imports nearly all of its petroleum needs, meaning global price spikes quickly translate into higher domestic costs.

Fuel imports became significantly more expensive, pushing Morocco’s overall import bill higher in the first quarter of 2026.

Total imports rose about 11% to 208 billion dirhams, while exports increased by only about 3% to 120 billion dirhams.

Imports of raw materials, particularly petroleum products, surged by roughly 42%. Higher energy prices have ripple effects across the economy, increasing transport costs, raising electricity production expenses and pushing up operating costs for businesses. These pressures are often passed on to consumers through higher prices.

Morocco does benefit in part from higher fertilizer prices, as it is one of the world’s leading phosphate exporters.

As global agricultural markets react to instability, fertilizer demand and prices tend to rise, boosting export revenues. However, this advantage is limited because Morocco also imports ammonia, a key input in fertilizer production, and ammonia prices typically increase during energy shocks.

International institutions, including the International Monetary Fund, have repeatedly warned that energy-importing countries across the Middle East and Africa are particularly vulnerable to global commodity shocks.