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Qatar have gotten a fairly favourable group stage draw for next year’s FIFA World Cup, but getting to the knockouts will still be a tough task. 

With just about six months to go before the 2026 FIFA World Cup, excitement is seriously starting to build for the tournament. With 42 of the 48 participants confirmed, the draw has set the stage for a five-week spectacle of football across North America.

Qatar will feature in the global showpiece for a second straight time, but this appearance carries added significance: it is the first time Al Annabi have reached the World Cup on sporting merit. The tournament’s expansion from 32 to 48 teams certainly helped their cause, but the team still had to get through some significant challenges, most notably including a head-to-head decider against the United Arab Emirates.

At the tournament, Qatar will be looking to improve on their 2022 performance. As hosts of the previous World Cup, they were eliminated in the group stage, losing all three matches, a result that fell short of expectations for the home team.

That tag may stick with them for quite a while, but Al Annabi will hope to show the world what they are really capable of in North America. They are far from the favourites in Group B with Canada, Switzerland and the winner of the European playoff between Italy, Northern Ireland, Wales, and Bosnia and Herzegovina, but they certainly have a fighting chance.

Opta Analyst, one of the foremost public-facing football data analysis outlets, currently rates Group B as the weakest at the World Cup. The primary factors contributing to this outcome are the absence of the tournament’s leading favourites and the inclusion of Canada, the lowest-ranked among the three host nations.

Qatar football expert Yousef Abdel-Fattah believes the team will still face a tough challenge. “A strong European side like Switzerland will really put Qatar to the test, and will most likely be Al Annabi’s toughest test in the group stages bar a potential Italy inclusion in the playoffs,” he noted. Indeed, Qatar’s FIFA world ranking of 54th is far lower than Switzerland (17th) and Canada (27th), while Italy (12th) would become the highest-ranked team in the group should they qualify.

The good news is that the expansion to the World Cup means that up to three teams can advance from each group. The top two spots come with guarantees, while the eight best third-placed teams will also enter the Round of 32. So, projections suggest that four points from the three group games will most likely be enough, and even just three could do the job.

Qatar’s schedule sees them face Switzerland in California on June 13 for their opening match, which is expected to be challenging for the team.

Five days later, they will be in Vancouver to face Canada, against whom they could get a result if their opponents experience similar host-team pressure. Most likely, though, their chances will hinge on the final group game against the European playoff winner. Italy or Wales would be stronger opponents, but the other two teams are ranked lower than Al Annabi.

So, with a favourable result in the European playoffs, Qatar could well be in a good position to get out of their World Cup group. First of all, though, Julen Lopetegui’s side must focus on raising their own level. Abdel-Fattah concluded, “after finishing last in the Arab Cup, things will definitely need to change ahead of the World Cup next summer”.