Morocco’s economy is under growing pressure as global energy tensions reveale deep vulnerabilities tied to its reliance on imported fuel, according to a new analysis by Allianz Research.
The report places Morocco among countries most exposed to risk if disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz drag on, warning that the country’s heavy dependence on imported refined petroleum leaves it highly sensitive to global price swings.
At the heart of the concern is what analysts call a “triple deficit” which is a mix of a budget gap, a current account deficit and a large energy import bill.
Together, these factors make the Moroccan dirham and government borrowing costs more likely to react quickly to external shocks.
Recent data cited in the report shows Morocco’s energy trade deficit stands at about 5% of gross domestic product. That comes alongside a fiscal deficit of roughly 4.5% and a current account gap of around 1.5%. This combination puts the economy in a “high sensitivity” zone when energy prices rise.
Energy imports alone cost the country more than $10 billion last year, based on official figures.
Another key issue is limited reserves. Morocco holds strategic oil reserves covering only about 30 days of consumption which is far less than countries like Poland or China. This leaves it with less room to maneuver if supply chains are disrupted.
For now, the main risk is higher prices, which could push inflation up by nearly one percentage point. But the bigger fear is a supply shock if shipping through the Strait of Hormuz is blocked for more than three months.
In that scenario, Morocco could struggle to secure enough fuel, putting added strain on public finances and slowing economic growth.
Still, the situation is not yet critical. Morocco has foreign exchange reserves covering about six months of imports, giving authorities some flexibility to cushion the impact on households and businesses.
Bank Al-Maghrib is expected to hold interest rates steady for now, focusing on keeping inflation and the currency stable.
Compared to energy exporters like Nigeria or Brazil, which can offset higher prices with export gains, Morocco remains structurally more vulnerable. Similar risks are seen in other import-dependent countries such as Egypt, Tunisia and Jordan.
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