Saturday 1 November 2025 – 23:04
Welcome to this week’s edition of our Weekly Risk Watch, offering insights into the economic, political, and security updates that could have significant implications for your business or daily life.
Economy and market:
- Bank Liquidity Deficit Widens in Morocco: BMCE Capital Global Research reported that the average bank liquidity shortfall rose 5.19% to MAD 144.6 billion between Oct. 23–29, 2025, and the center expects a slight slowdown in central bank interventions with seven-day advances returning to MAD 66.5 billion.
- Morocco’s Water Strain Deepens: Morocco’s water basins are facing renewed pressure amid persistent structural water scarcity, with national reservoir levels falling to just over 31% of capacity. While some northern basins remain stable, southern and interior regions face critical shortages.
Risk Factor: Uneven rainfall, declining inflows, and slow adaptation threaten agriculture, energy, and urban supply systems. Also, Morocco’s water reserves could fall further as another uncertain rainy season begins.
- Parliament Debates 2026 Customs Cuts for Medicines: Morocco’s parliament saw heated discussions over Article 4 of the 2026 finance bill, which proposes reducing tariffs on imported pharmaceutical products. Opposition lawmakers questioned the effectiveness of the cuts, warned they could benefit certain companies.
Political stability:
- Increased Female Livestock Sales in Morocco: Livestock breeders warn that upcoming drought conditions may drive higher sales of female animals despite the first disbursement of subsidies, even as prices remain stable.
- Generic Drug Substitution: Morocco’s private general practitioners’ union raised concerns over differences in excipients between original and generic drugs, citing risks for chronic or sensitive patients.
- Morocco’s Hospitals at Risk: Operating rooms across several regional and provincial hospitals are facing a critical shortage of anesthesia and resuscitation drugs, threatening to halt surgical procedures in the coming days.
Risk Factor: Shortages of essential medications such as propofol, curare agents, ephedrine, and prostigmine could force hospitals to suspend surgeries and endanger patient safety if emergency supplies are not secured.
- Unsafe Prison Closed in Casablanca: Morocco’s prison authority has permanently shut down the Ain Borja local prison after a technical report deemed its structure severely deteriorated.
Risk Factor: Structural decay and safety concerns for inmates and staff prompted the facility’s evacuation and inmate transfers.
- Flour Controversy in Morocco: Lawmaker Ahmed Touizi said some mills “grind paper with flour,” a statement that stirred serious public debate across the country, and he later apologized while maintaining his warning about flaws in the subsidized flour system
Cross-border stability:
- Major Hashish Smuggling Networks: Spanish authorities, in close coordination with Morocco’s security services, dismantled two international criminal organizations attempting to smuggle over 12 tons of hashish into Europe.
- UN Flags Rights Abuses in Tindouf Camps: The latest report by UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres condemns ongoing human rights violations in the Tindouf camps in Algeria, citing systematic abuses by the Polisario Front with the complicity of the host country.
Risk Factor: Persistent restrictions on movement and expression, child soldier recruitment, and the diversion of humanitarian aid deepen food insecurity and human suffering.
- Suspicious Flights to Tindouf Ahead of UN Vote: Recent charter and commercial flights from Algiers and Oran into Tindouf suggested orchestrated mobilization in Polisario camps ahead of the UN Security Council’s vote endorsing Morocco’s 2007 autonomy plan.
Security:
- Polisario arms threat: As the UN marked Disarmament Week (Oct. 24–30), Moroccan and international experts warned that rising tensions and cease-fire violations by the Polisario Front highlight the urgent need to curb military escalation in the region.
Risk Factor: Continued attacks and weapons proliferation in the southern provinces threaten civilian safety and regional stability.
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