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During busy times on an average day at Heathrow Airport, planes can land as often as one every 45 seconds.

Serving more than 83 million passengers in 2024, Heathrow is one of the largest airports in the world. The name is a global brand, known by travellers as the gateway to the UK and to the rest of Europe.

But with its two runways, the busy airport is straining. It is nearly at its maximum annual capacity of 480,000 flights. 

The infrastructure is struggling to keep up with demand for constant landings and takeoffs. 

Over the last few weeks, the almost two-decades-long debate about whether the airport should be allowed to expand with a third runway has reached a fever point.

Government ministers argue an expansion of Heathrow and other airports in the country could drive the UK’s sluggish economic growth and boost the tourism sector. 

Climate campaigners say the emissions from an expansion would be catastrophic for the environment.

Some airlines have backed the plans, whereas others are hesitant. 

On Wednesday, the politician in charge of the UK’s economy, Chancellor Rachel Reeves, announced that the government will back a third runway at Heathrow and an expansion at other airports in the country. 

What Could a Third Heathrow Runway Mean for Tourism?

Plans by Heathrow Airport show the location of a potential third runway.

Heathrow Airport said in a report that the hub served more than 11 million international visitors in 2024 and that the expansion could give the UK’s economy a £100 billion ($124 billion) boost by 2040. This could create jobs and 40 new longhaul destinations, bringing in more tourists.

The UK however has long struggled with a tourism deficit. 

UK residents travelling abroad spend £41billion more at their destinations each year when compared with what international visitors spend in Britain, according to a report by the New Economics Foundation.

The UK chancellor Rachel Reeves said she is willing to make difficult decisions to grow the country’s economy. 

Commenting on Heathrow at the World Economic Forum talks in Davos last week, she said, “The answer can’t always be no. That’s been the problem in Britain for a long time. When there was a choice between something that would grow the economy and anything else, anything else always won. Growth is the number one mission of this government. We mean it, and that means it trumps other things.”

Heathrow’s Expansion Has Long Faced Delays and Criticism

The third runway saga has been going on for years.

There is currently no planning application for the construction of a runway and around 1,000 home owners could be forced by the government to sell their properties to make way for it.

Even if approved, we’re unlikely to see a shovel in the ground for years. The runway is unlikely to open before 2035. 

British Airways’ parent IAG, which operates the most flights at the airport, has expressed its reservations.

IAG did not respond to Skift’s request for comment on the matter. 

But IAG previously warned it would not support the expansion unless Heathrow’s operating costs were overhauled. 

The price of operating a plane at Heathrow varies widely, with some slots costing millions of dollars per year. 

In 2016, Oman Air paid $75 million for a pair of early morning landing slots at Heathrow.

An expansion could also increase competition for British Airways. EasyJet, another UK airline, has welcomed the plans. 

Kenton Jarvis, EasyJet CEO, called it “decisive action by the government,” noting that a third runway could lead to lower fares for more passengers.

“We have always said that aviation, the industry, is an enabler of economic growth. Heathrow would fit our network of primary airports with great catchment areas,” Jarvis said this month at an aviation conference. 

Could an Expansion at Heathrow Lead to More Greenhouse Gas Emissions?

UK Secretary of State for Energy Security and Net Zero, Ed Miliband, speaking in the House of Commons on Monday. Miliband has long rejected plans for a third runway. Source: House of Commons.

Appearing before the UK’s House of Commons Environmental Audit Committee on Monday, Ed Miliband, the UK’s minister for net-zero, addressed his position. 

He has long rejected the idea of expanding Heathrow. But over recent weeks he has refused to comment on whether he will back his colleague, Rachel Reeves. 

“I just want to sort of provide this element of reassurance to you, which is 100 per cent any aviation expansion must be justified within carbon budgets,” he said at the committee. 

‘And if it can’t be justified, it won’t go ahead.’

The carbon budget is the amount of emissions the UK can emit over five years by law. 

The climate charity Possible, which carries out research about aviation, said airport expansions in the UK would lead to an increase in emissions. 

Alethea Warrington, head of aviation at Possible told Skift that approving the expansion would be a “misstep” for a government which “claims to be a climate leader. This huge increase in emissions would benefit only the small group of people who take most of the flights, further worsening the UK’s huge tourism spending deficit and pushing our economy backwards.”

But the UK chancellor Reeves said that economic growth should prioritise net-zero goals.

Speaking to Sky News last week, she said that a lot has changed in aviation over the last few years and that a third runway could lead to cleaner air around London. 

“It will mean that instead of circling London, flights can land at Heathrow,” she said.

Reeves added that more sustainable aviation fuels were changing flight carbon emissions.

“A lot has changed in aviation, and sustainable aviation and economic growth go hand-in-hand,” the chancellor said. 

“SAF reduces CO2 emissions by around 70%. We are investing £63million into the advanced fuel fund,” she said on Wednesday.

But critics argue that the production of sustainable aviation fuel is far from what the aviation industry will require. 

“The claim that alternative aviation fuel would offset the huge increase in emissions from the third runway just doesn’t stack up,” said Alethea Warrington of Possible.

“So-called sustainable fuels will be available only in very small quantities, and will be insufficient to meet more than a small proportion of the industry’s current demand for fuel, let alone its plans for growth. If the government wants to boost the economy by investing in transport infrastructure, they should focus on delivering the low-carbon, affordable rail, coach and bus connections,” she said.

The UK government’s modelling on SAF found that use of the greener fuel by 2040 wouldn’t decrease emissions and will only cover expected growth in demand, including any airport expansions. 

Aviation analyst and commentator Matt Finch said that the raw materials to make SAF is a “scarce resource.” 

Used cooking oil from restaurants is a common source of SAF. Jet fuel facilities then use this rather than fossil fuels to make it.

“Of the five UK plants that we were promised would be being built this year, none have started. So don’t expect technology to save us,” he said. 

In a press release ahead of her expected announcement, Reeves said “Low growth is not our destiny. But growth will not come without a fight.”

Skift approached the UK government about the broader impacts of a third runway including increased demand for SAF, but it did not comment.

Skift’s in-depth reporting on climate issues is made possible through the financial support of Intrepid Travel. This backing allows Skift to bring you high-quality journalism on one of the most important topics facing our planet today. Intrepid is not involved in any decisions made by Skift’s editorial team.