- Sanctions versus freedom of navigation: the core diplomatic deadlock
- Commercial shipping across the Gulf drops to barely 10% of standard volume
- Oman’s framework: a regulated transit corridor with dual control
- Strategic risks for Iran in the long term
With commercial maritime traffic virtually paralysed in the Strait of Hormuz, Middle Eastern diplomacy is seeking an urgent resolution under close monitoring by the International Maritime Organization (IMO).
Oman and Qatar have intensified diplomatic contacts to restore regular passage, but substantial obstacles remain: Iran has prepared a comprehensive set of demands to reopen the waterway, while Washington shows no willingness to ease economic sanctions.
The high-level visit to Tehran by Qatari Prime Minister Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani has reactivated senior political dialogue. Concurrently, Muscat is coordinating on a technical level with Iranian authorities to draft a provisional maritime transit corridor operating under agreed security protocols.
Sanctions versus freedom of navigation: the core diplomatic deadlock
Negotiations are constrained by two fundamentally conflicting positions. Tehran refuses to restore commercial transit without verified guarantees that the White House will lift the sweeping economic sanctions on its oil exports and financial networks enforced by the US Department of the Treasury.
Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf stated the regime’s stance unequivocally: as long as Iran is blocked from exporting its crude, regional energy exports will face persistent instability.
The US administration maintains an opposing stance. Donald Trump has rejected granting concessions to Iran or reviving the draft framework considered in June. According to diplomatic sources cited by The Wall Street Journal, the American strategy focuses on maximising financial pressure and demanding unconditional guarantees for freedom of international navigation prior to any sanctions relief, in accordance with the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS).

Commercial shipping across the Gulf drops to barely 10% of standard volume
At sea, the economic fallout is severe. Maritime tracking data compiled by Reuters shows that only seven commercial freighters transited the strait on Thursday, down from seventeen the previous day.
Over the past ten days, daily transits have averaged around fifteen vessels, reducing actual operational traffic to between 5% and 15% of historical volumes vital to trade frameworks governed by the World Trade Organization (WTO).
Although the United States Navy has carried out mine-clearing operations and escorted approximately 1,500 commercial vessels in recent weeks, major shipping lines remain cautious. Maritime insurance risk premiums have surged, and few shipowners represented by international bodies like BIMCO are willing to deploy vessels and crews into an active conflict zone.

Oman’s framework: a regulated transit corridor with dual control
To break the operational deadlock, Tehran and Muscat are assessing the creation of a bilateral regulated maritime corridor. The proposed mechanism envisions commercial ships entering the Gulf through Iranian territorial waters and exiting via the Omani-monitored lane, subject to transit fees dedicated to maritime security and channel maintenance.
This initiative would not reinstate pre-conflict shipping arrangements, but would establish a joint administrative framework for strait management.
Oman, maintaining direct diplomatic channels with both Tehran and the US Department of State, aims for a pragmatic intermediate agreement to mitigate daily risks, while Doha works to widen consultations towards a broader ceasefire supported by the United Nations (UN).

Strategic risks for Iran in the long term
Restricting passage through Hormuz confronts Tehran with substantial long-term strategic vulnerabilities. While shutting the chokepoint tightens global energy markets and provides short-term tactical leverage, it risks accelerating infrastructural shifts detrimental to the Islamic Republic.
As reported by The Guardian, prolonged uncertainty incentivises neighbouring Gulf monarchies and international energy corporations to accelerate alternative pipeline projects to bypass the Persian Gulf entirely, moving crude towards the Red Sea and Indian Ocean.
Should these bypass routes become fully operational, Hormuz will gradually lose its historical geopolitical centrality. Conversely, if Iran reopens the waterway without obtaining US concessions, it will have expended its primary point of international leverage without lifting the economic blockade. It is within this narrow margin that negotiations between the Gulf capitals and the White House are currently taking place.
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