United Airlines said Tuesday it would trim its domestic schedule by about 4% during the third quarter in response to “the current demand environment.”
However, the carrier posted a record first quarter, netting $13.2 billion in revenue and a net income of $387 million. Unlike some of its competitors, United did not pull its 2025 forecast, but rather provided a second set of projections in the event of a recession.
In that case, it forecast a 5-point decrease in total operating revenue for the rest of the year and said adjusted earnings per share would come in at $7 to $9, versus $11.50 to $13.50 in a “stable environment.”
United is still doubling down on international and premium flying. Forward bookings were up 5% for international flights and up 17% for premium seats compared to last year.
For the first quarter, premium revenues at United increased 9.2% and revenues from business travel were up 7.4%. Delta Air Lines CEO Ed Bastian had said last week during a call with analysts that business travel trends were “choppy.”
United and Delta are both banking on premium travelers to make up for shortfalls in domestic and economy travel. Delta president Glen Hauenstein noted last week that the uptick in transatlantic demand has been primarily fueled by Baby Boomers.
Airlines Prepare for a Potential Recession
Fears of a recession brought by a trade war and mass layoffs within the federal government have created challenges for the industry. Delta and Frontier Airlines pulled their 2025 outlooks, citing the current economic environment.
Shares of major airlines have also plummeted since President Donald Trump announced a sweeping set of tariffs on a variety of imports, though United shares were jumping higher in after-hours trading following the release of its results.
Those concerns are also having an impact on airlines’ order books. Bastian said during a call with analysts last week that the Atlanta-based carrier would defer an aircraft with a tariff.
“It’s hard to know how this is going to play out, given that this is somewhat self-imposed,” Bastian said during the call. “And I’m hopeful that sanity will prevail and we’ll move through this period of time on the global trade front relatively quickly. But we’re prepared in any event to make sure that we protect Delta through this.”
United executives including CEO Scott Kirby are scheduled to discuss results and take questions from analysts Wednesday at 10:30 a.m. ET.
Airlines Sector Stock Index Performance Year-to-Date
What am I looking at? The performance of airline sector stocks within the ST200. The index includes companies publicly traded across global markets including network carriers, low-cost carriers, and other related companies.
The Skift Travel 200 (ST200) combines the financial performance of nearly 200 travel companies worth more than a trillion dollars into a single number. See more airlines sector financial performance.
Read the full methodology behind the Skift Travel 200.
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